Update; for Policyowner Behavior in the Tail Project

Risk Management
Task Force

Policyholder Behavior in the Tail Subgroup (PBITT)

Update for Policyowner Behavior in the Tail Project
A conference call with the POG was held on Monday, September 13, with the researcher, Dr. Changki Kim, to review the goals of the project and the expectations and timing of the final report currently anticipated in early November.

Bob Lalonde and Steve Siegel will work on an expected list of ultimate project deliverables for Dr. Kim to confirm.

Broadly speaking, Dr Kim will do the initial work using Korean data that he has to illustrate the application of his approach to determine the range of possible results for policyholder lapse behavior in the tail for a few products. Efforts are also underway to obtain U.S. data to be used by Dr. Kim in his research. We also discussed the possibility of obtaining Venezuelan and Japanese policyholder data reflecting their recent crisis situations.

The next call is scheduled for Sept 27th to finalize the schedule, report on recent developments and discuss other activities that the PBITT group consider pursuing.

Steven Siegel, September 22, 2004